Why no one can win a war through violence alone: thermodynamics, complexity and the limits of power

No one will ever achieve a lasting victory through violence alone, because violence itself is subject to the same laws of nature as any other process. War is not a machine that you can make run faster by applying more force; it is a dynamic system with its own internal logic. It reacts, adapts and develops new forms of resistance. Just like a hurricane, you can influence it, but not control it through brute force. The reason for this lies deeply rooted in the first and second laws of thermodynamics.

The first law: energy cannot be created from nothing

The first law of thermodynamics states that energy cannot be created or destroyed, only transformed. In war, this means that every action — military, economic, psychological or informational — costs energy. Soldiers, fuel, logistics, political legitimacy, morale, trust: these are all forms of available energy within a system.

When violence is deployed, this energy is immediately converted into other forms: damage, resistance, chaos, fear, logistical strain. That energy does not disappear, but is dispersed throughout the system, often in ways that actually reduce control. Every bomb, every attack, every threat consumes not only material resources, but also political and social energy. That energy is then no longer available to build stability, restore trust or achieve goals sustainably.

Violence seems powerful, but it is in fact a quick way to burn concentrated energy.

The second law: entropy always increases

The second law of thermodynamics states that in any closed system, entropy — the degree of disorder — increases. War drastically accelerates this process. Structures fall apart, information becomes distorted, communication is disrupted, and decisions are made under stress and uncertainty. Every escalation increases complexity and reduces predictability.

The more violence is used, the greater the entropy. And the greater the entropy, the harder it becomes to steer with any precision. This is why wars rarely go according to plan. Minor actions trigger disproportionate reactions. Allies change sides. Economies react unpredictably. Public opinion shifts. The system becomes more turbulent.

Violence therefore amplifies precisely what makes control impossible.

Lying and deception as energy loss

Lying and deception appear to be strategic tools, but from a thermodynamic perspective they are extremely inefficient. A lie requires constant energy to sustain: coordination, secrecy, control of information, suppression of contradictory facts. Every lie creates additional complexity in the system.

Where truth stabilises, deception introduces noise. That noise increases entropy. People trust information less, decisions become slower, organisations become internally divided. The energy required to protect the lie can no longer be used to achieve goals. The system consumes itself.

Moreover, deception forces defensive behaviour: more control, more surveillance, more coercion. This, in turn, costs energy and creates further resistance. Ultimately, a situation arises in which a large proportion of the available energy is spent on maintaining the narrative, rather than achieving a strategic goal.

In other words: the energy is used up before victory is even possible.

Violence as a blunt instrument

Violence is a direct conversion of concentrated energy into chaos. It can break something, but it cannot build anything. It can destroy resistance, but at the same time it creates new resistance. Every act of destruction requires subsequent repair. That repair requires more energy than the original destruction.

That is why violence can be tactically effective, but strategically exhausting. Anyone who tries to win by using ever-increasing violence accelerates their own energy loss and increases the entropy of the system within which they themselves must operate.

Strategy as dealing with a living system

The true art of strategy is not imposing one’s will through brute force, but working with the system. War is a living, breathing and thinking network of people, economies, perceptions and expectations. You are a participant in this system, not its master.

Effective strategy minimises energy loss and entropy. It uses psychology rather than coercion, diplomacy rather than escalation, economics rather than destruction, information rather than deception. Not because these means are ‘softer’, but because they are thermodynamically more efficient: they conserve energy and limit chaos.

Those who try to dominate the system through force burn through their energy and lose control.

Those who understand the system and steer it subtly use less energy and increase their influence.

Conclusion

No one can win a war sustainably through violence alone, because violence consumes energy and increases entropy. The first law of thermodynamics means that energy cannot be recovered. The second law means that the chaos created does not spontaneously disappear. Lies and deceit accelerate this process by consuming extra energy and increasing disorder.

The energy is not there — nor can it be — to control a complex dynamic system through sheer force. The only sustainable form of power therefore lies not in domination, but in understanding. Not in brute force, but in the intelligent steering of a system over which no one has complete control.